1 Introduction

1.1 History

Vibrio cholerae was introduced to the African continent from Asia in the 1970s and has since become endemic in many countries.

1.2 Recent Surge

Although there have been sporadic cholera outbreaks over the past five decades, there has been a significant surge in cases since 2021. This increase is likely due to factors such as climate change and disruptions to municipal services during the COVID-19 pandemic.

1.3 GTFCC Goals

The Global Task Force on Cholera Control (GTFCC) aims to reduce cholera deaths by 90% by 2030.

1.4 OCV Stockpiles

A major concern with the recent surge in cases is the depletion of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) stockpiles. In response, officials have shifted to single-dose OCV strategies. Efforts are underway to replenish stockpiles, with a key question being how best to allocate them to reduce transmission regionally and support the GTFCC’s goal.

1.5 Climate Change

Environmental factors play a significant role in cholera outbreaks, with warmer and wetter conditions creating a more favorable environment for Vibrio cholerae. These conditions are likely to exacerbate the already challenging endemic and outbreak settings. Models that incorporate climatic forcing can provide insights into future cholera dynamics due to climate change and aid in achieving the GTFCC goal.